India has once again sparked concerns of a “water war” by abruptly releasing a massive volume of water into the Chenab River at Head Marala during winter, followed by a sharp reduction in flows for several consecutive days, Pakistani authorities said.
Addressing a weekly press briefing, Foreign Office spokesperson Tahir Hussain Andrabi said Pakistan has recorded unusual and abrupt variations in the Chenab’s water flow since December 7.
“Pakistan views these developments with extreme concern and seriousness. The sudden fluctuations indicate unilateral water releases by India into the Chenab River without prior notification or data sharing,” Andrabi stated.
He added that Pakistan has formally approached India through the Indus Water Commissioner, seeking explanations and detailed information in line with the procedures set out under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).
Highlighting the risks of such actions, the spokesperson warned that sudden manipulation of river flows—especially during a sensitive agricultural period—poses a direct threat to lives, livelihoods, food security, and the country’s overall economic stability.
According to officials, the Modi government released around 58,000 cusecs of water during the midnight hours of December 7 and 8, 2025. However, by December 13, India drastically reduced the flow to just 870 cusecs, which remained between 870 and 1,000 cusecs until December 17.
Historical records show that average Chenab River flows during this period over the past decade ranged between 4,000 and 10,000 cusecs, making the recent reductions highly abnormal.
Pakistani authorities alleged that India violated the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty by first emptying and then refilling the Baglihar Hydropower Project reservoir. Under the treaty, run-of-the-river projects on rivers allocated to Pakistan cannot be arbitrarily emptied or refilled.
The Court of Arbitration, in its August 8, 2025 ruling, had already declared that India’s practice of emptying and filling dams on Pakistan-allocated rivers amounts to water weaponisation.
Pakistan’s Commissioner for Indus Waters, Syed Mehr Ali Shah, confirmed that he has written a formal letter to his Indian counterpart, stressing that the Indus Waters Treaty remains fully operational, as reaffirmed by the Court of Arbitration.
He said the letter included scientific evidence proving that the emptying and refilling of the Baglihar Dam was not caused by natural hydrometeorological factors but was a deliberate act of water manipulation.
The communication was issued under Article VI(1)(a) and (b) of the IWT, seeking detailed water-release data. Additionally, under Article VIII(1)(a) and (4)(b), Pakistan requested immediate consultations to address the serious implications of sudden changes in river flows.
It is noteworthy that on April 23, 2024, India unilaterally announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. However, the Court of Arbitration later ruled that India had no legal authority to suspend the treaty unilaterally and that it remains binding.
